ON THE EVE OF THE FIRST DEBATE – AT 12:52 P.M. ET:   The first Republican debate will be held Thursday night in Cleveland.  From The Hill:

Donald Trump has surged to the top of the 2016 GOP presidential field in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll with a double-digit increase in the past month.

Trump was the first choice of 19 percent of Republican primary voters in the new poll, released early Sunday.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker drew the support of 15 percent of GOP voters and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush took 14 percent, all within the poll’s margin of error.

Bush stood atop the Republican field in a similar poll released in June. Trump had 1 percent in that survey.

Trump was also the second choice of 11 percent of respondents in the new poll, compared with 3 percent in June.

The latest poll of 252 Republican primary voters was conducted was July 26-30, following Trump’s controversial comments about Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) war record. It has a margin of error of 6.17 percentage points.

COMMENT:  One of the real surprises is how poorly Marco Rubio is doing, at least right now.  He is one of the most attractive, and electable, Republicans in the race.  I'm also annoyed that Carly Fiorina, possibly the most articulate of all the Republican candidates, cannot get traction in the polls.  She'd be a great choice for vice president, and slays them wherever she appears. 

One of the key questions for Thursday night is whether Donald Trump can actually sustain himself on a stage with experienced political contenders.  Is he a bubble or a serious threat?  I honestly don't think he'll get the nomination.  With his loose mouth he'll probably implode sometime down the line.  In New York he is widely regarded as an obnoxious blowhard.  But he takes the spotlight away from those more likely to win a general election.

Thursday's debate is made more intriguing by the turmoil in the Democratic Party.  Hillary, while still a strong favorite, is no longer seen as inevitable.  Republicans cannot really be sure who they'll face. 

August 2, 2015